Post No. 159: Are You Tired of Your Bathroom?

© 2011, the Institute for Applied Common Sense

Potential college grads do not need experts to tell them that they have some difficult choices to make this spring. We Baby Boomers have pretty much screwed up things for them. We managed to give the rich, particularly the nouveau riche, virtually all of our marbles and a bunch of our lunch money just to get safe passage to school.

Several days ago, we ran across an article where the author subscribed to the notion that either the solution to, or the root of a, problem can be found in the asking of the question.

Just minutes ago, we heard a radio commercial for a bathroom remodeling company, which may provide a practical example of the concept. (Shortly after, we heard an economist say that consumer spending in the U.S. needs a spark, since it constitutes 70% of the nation’s economy.)

When we heard, “Are you tired of your bathroom,” we laughed out loud. That consumers would seek out the services of any company (or anyone) simply because they are tired of how something feels, looks, smells, tastes, or sounds grabbed us. (Are there such companies to find new spouses?) Our parents born in the Depression were comfortable with conspicuous subsistence, while storing cash in the coffee can planted in the back yard.

It occurred to us that this change in attitude amongst the Boomers might explain much about the American consumer, or even the American psyche, at this point in our economic evolution.

Back in the late 1970s, several of our Fellows worked for a large firm. All employees received one month’s pay as a Christmas bonus. Right in the middle of the double-dipped recession of 1980 - 1982, the most ambitious partners left, carrying a bunch of business (and accompanying staff members), to form a new firm, which had different ideas about the future.

But times were tough, and come Christmas talk was about whether we would get paid, not whether we would receive a bonus. Instead of looking for the icing on the cake, we wondered whether we would get any beans.

Recently, we heard a comment by a caller during a C-Span program. China was the topic, and the point at which it would overtake America as the dominant economic force was the issue. (Last month, China supplanted Japan as the No. 2 global power.) “1.4 billion people seeking what we have is a powerful force.” He further suggested that it can’t be stopped.

Hunger is a powerful force. So is the resultant increase in the ranks and spending power of the Chinese middle class.

Yesterday, a taxi cab driver remarked that the area where the Institute is located was just woods 50 years ago, although there was an occasional shack with an outhouse. Those of you who have never used an outhouse might find it odd that someone might get tired of one.

According to the Wikipedia:

“In 1929, consumer spending was 75% of the nation's economy. This grew to 83% in 1932, when business spending dropped. Consumer spending dropped to about 50% during World War II due to large expenditures by the government and lack of consumer products. It has risen since 1983 to about 70%, as the result of relaxed consumer credit. Spending dropped in 2008 as the result of consumer fears about the economy. Consumers saved instead of spending.”

So all we middle-class consumers need to do is start spending.

But what’s the source of income for ordinary consumers? Many are having difficulty finding jobs, and just putting food on the table.

Then it hit us. All of a sudden we understood why some contend that tax cuts to the rich will aid the economy. Someone recently sent us an economic chart reflecting how the economic status of the middle class has not improved over the last 25 years.

It also reflected a 33% increase for wealthy Americans.

Common Sense suggests, at this point in our economic evolution, that it’s the rich folks who aren’t spending, or investing, or hiring, or much of anything else to benefit those of us at the bottom of the heap. And that’s who we Baby Boomers are going to have to wait on.

But upcoming college graduates can learn from our mistakes, and not be so foolish about their personal economies.

Just the other day, we ran across a company, Get It Together, which describes itself as a leader in independent financial and legal education. They provide workshops and mentor programs on financial and legal planning, coupled with credit management. What group is their primary target audience?

College students.

Better late than never.

Now, are you tired of your bathroom?

P.S. The Logistician always contended, while working 3,000 hour years, that he could have realized more dollars on an hourly basis being a plumber.

Post No. 133a: TV Program of Interest: Common Sense Principles for Troubled Times

As we type this, Professor Robert Frank of Cornell University is discussing his book, The Economic Naturalist's Field Guide: Common Sense Principles for Troubled Times, on C-Span2 Book TV. Click here to see a synopsis of the program. If you miss it, it will air again today, Sunday, September 6, 2009, at 5:00pm EDST.

During his discussion he discusses the conflict between individual logic and group logic, and ways to address that conflict. He also addresses how society might address behaviors which all humans recognize are bad for us, but we pursue anyway.

Post No. 122a: Re-Posting of Post No. 90: Making Use of the Current Financial Mess

We frequently re-visit earlier posts to determine their continuing applicability. In February of this year, we generated a piece entitled "Making Use of the Current Financial Mess."

Since we continue to be in an economic "______ession" of some type, we thought that we would re-visit our earlier thoughts, and see if any of your thoughts have changed in the interim.


© 2009, the Institute for Applied Common Sense

Mark Twain observed that if a cat sits on a hot stove, she will never do it again. Unfortunately, she'll probably never sit on a cold stove either.

Everyone has their favorite villain for the current economic collapse. The Logistician sent me a list of 10 ways in which he felt consumers were responsible.

I told him that I did not buy into his premise, but in thinking about it further, I realized that if we only point the finger at the fat cats, we will have learned little. We all bear some responsibility.

We are behaving much like Mr. Twain’s cat. Despite our efforts to revive our financial system, we have little to show for it… yet. We definitely can’t sit at the starting line waiting for the next guy to say, “Go.”

We simply need to use some Common Sense, on which the left and right should be able to agree.

According to the Scientific Method, bad ideas and experiments that don’t work are as valuable as those that do, provided we learn from the experience, and use that knowledge productively.

So, with 2/3rds of our economic well-being based on our own behavior, we would like to suggest a few topics for discussion, the results of which may assist us in finding our way out of this financial wilderness.

1. If a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

You don’t need a Ph.D. in economics to realize that markets don’t always go up. The observation that a few people are making great sacks of money, and violating the rules of Common Sense, does not relieve us of the obligation of doing our own home work.

If you can’t make the numbers work within your current income, don’t bet on massive increases in the value of your investment to bail you out.

You have a better chance in Vegas than in a financial commodity you do not understand. (And the truth be told, few of us really understand them.)

2. Don’t bet your home on things you don’t need.

Contrary to the Logistician’s mantra, there is nothing wrong with wanting a better, more luxurious life, but not at twenty percent interest. Here there are demons…like bankruptcy…and acid rain falling on your childrens' heads.

Save the money 1st; then buy the Lexus. It’s only Common Sense.

3. Ignore herd instinct.

When everybody agrees on the direction of a market, guess what…?

4. Be careful when building and buying things which are more than you need.

Advertising not withstanding, buying an Escalade won’t make you an NBA star. There is a reason why the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord are the 2 best selling cars in the country.

5. Particularly avoid using credit or going into debt to build or buy things which are more than you need.

We went into debt, both individually and collectively, based on the assumption that the party would never stop.

Pick up any book on history…it always does. And, you don’t want to be the guy playing musical chairs when….

6. Remember that gluttony and greed are 2 of the 7 deadly sins.

Really want to make a 20% return on your income? Pay off your credit cards.

7. Carefully weigh the impact of retirement on an individual and societal level.

The Logistician and I differ on this point. The Logistician feels we got lazy and retired too early. My take is that we took the money and ignored our inherent desire for a more worthwhile job… and after 30 years we couldn’t wait to get out.

With our most experienced workers, although still productive, leaving the workforce early, all of this experience went to waste… and it is experience we can ill afford to waste.

8. Avoid being seduced by the short-term Sirens.

There was a time when we bought things to last. Next time you are in the park, look at the number of people taking pictures with manual focus SLR cameras.

This desire to last drove a subsequent demand for quality… producing a pride of workmanship that represents the essence of “Quality of Life.”

9. Don’t leave the education of your kids to the entertainment industry.

Not wanting to engage them, we abdicated our responsibility to the likes of Nintendo, Disney, and MTV, as long as they didn’t interfere with our pursuit of the “good life.”

If you don’t want children, don’t have them. You can not experience the sense of wonder children project, as they learn about the world via remote control.

You have to be there… and evolution suggests that this is one of the few primal pleasures we have inherited undiminished.

10. Lend a helping hand.

If you know someone in need of a job, through no fault of his own, ask around. Do what you can to help him get re-employed.

Want to raise the “quality of your life,” watch the face of a man or woman you have helped put back to work. Government can’t do that.

You see, we do most of the spending. No income, no spending. No jobs, no income.

Is there anything on this list which defies Common Sense?

After all, we should be smarter than Mr. Twain’s cat.

© 2009, by the Laughingman for the Institute for Applied Common Sense

Post No. 111: Been There; Done That

© 2009, the Institute for Applied Common Sense

We frequently suggest that in tackling problems, we examine history, starting with a minimum of 5,000 years, and as far back as 13,000.

However, we’ve come to the conclusion that history alone may not always be able to help us out of jams.

Alan Greenspan recently lamented that those principles he relied on for 40 years no longer apply.

An historian once noted that we should always proceed with caution when we think that the policies of the past can be reapplied, and will generate similar results.

We might do well to consult physics, and better understand the laws of static and dynamic forces. (These are older than humankind and history.)

In order to assess or address anything within a dynamic system, one must freeze or suspend all movement or change, of as many variables as possible, or otherwise isolate the component at issue.

We also know that slight tweaks (no, not tweets) of a variable can result in dramatically different results.

Logic dictates that the larger and more complex the system, the more difficult it is to manage or affect any part of it.

As comforting as it may be psychologically, to resort to playing marbles and pick-up-sticks, it is of questionable value to return to many practices of the past.

Imagine trying to reconstruct that romance which you had with that guy or gal back in school (altered state of consciousness or not), and hope that those old moves lead to the same results.

As a nation, we can never re-create the circumstances extant when prior practices and policies were implemented and applied.

The world may have changed every year back then, but it now changes every nanosecond. We need to recognize this, and conduct ourselves accordingly.

It’s actually lazy and simplistic to merely repeat the practices of the past, even if they were successful. It requires far more energy, commitment, focus, and innovation to craft appropriate approaches to new conditions, everyday.

Sitting on the sidelines and simply watching changes occur without responding also may not be the best tactic.

To suggest that our enemies or competitors have been sitting still, or that the conditions in our country have been in suspension, is just plain science fiction.

For years, Corporate America used large, 100 year old silk-stocking firms to perform its outside legal work. The Logistician and his partners sought that same work, somewhat successfully, by offering a lower rate. They were smaller, more nimble, had lower overheard, and more importantly, hungrier.

Yet, many corporations were reluctant to make such a change. If things went awry, someone would undoubtedly question why the referring counsel did something out of the ordinary, and did not stick with the tried and tested firms.

Hollywood’s like that. It’s far easier to explain why “Men in Black 12” did not generate record box office numbers, than a new concept.

But consider this.

If you‘re surprised about a development over a span of 30 years, like the demise of our educational and industrial systems here in the U.S., you probably were asleep at the switch, and not paying close attention to changes on an annual, much less a monthly, basis.

We all have a tendency to go through repetitive motions. They’re safe, familiar, less subject to scrutiny, and require less effort.

UPS had a marketing campaign which referred to “moving at the speed of business.” Hong Kong is a 24 hour business city. Imagine what happens to others when their business communities are asleep.

It’s the nature of competition, and the nature of change.

There’s been much noise about returning to the policies of Clinton, or Reagan, or Kennedy, or FDR. Quite frankly, returning to those dated tactics, no matter which side of the ideological line they may fall, may not be particularly helpful.

Those circumstances no longer exist, and will never exist again. And that doesn’t take into consideration the efforts to revise history.

We can’t duplicate the economic variables. We certainly can not re-create the psychological and social variables.

Going forward, we need to craft new procedures, new principles, new tactics. Ones that fit our current conditions, which have never existed before.

So to all of our politicians and policy makers out there, please detach yourselves from your ideological goals and preferences, and repeating that mantra about what you think worked in the past.

Try to figure out what’s most likely to work, TODAY, going forward, based on current conditions, and those we anticipate.

The world is far flatter than we once thought.

Post No. 90: Making Use of the Current Financial Mess

© 2009, the Institute for Applied Common Sense

Mark Twain observed that if a cat sits on a hot stove, she will never do it again. Unfortunately, she'll probably never sit on a cold stove either.

Everyone has their favorite villain for the current economic collapse. The Logistician sent me a list of 10 ways in which he felt consumers were responsible.

I told him that I did not buy into his premise, but in thinking about it further, I realized that if we only point the finger at the fat cats, we will have learned little. We all bear some responsibility.

We are behaving much like Mr. Twain’s cat. Despite our efforts to revive our financial system, we have little to show for it… yet. We definitely can’t sit at the starting line waiting for the next guy to say, “Go.”

We simply need to use some Common Sense, on which the left and right should be able to agree.

According to the Scientific Method, bad ideas and experiments that don’t work are as valuable as those that do, provided we learn from the experience, and use that knowledge productively.

So, with 2/3rds of our economic well-being based on our own behavior, we would like to suggest a few topics for discussion, the results of which may assist us in finding our way out of this financial wilderness.

1. If a deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

You don’t need a Ph.D. in economics to realize that markets don’t always go up. The observation that a few people are making great sacks of money, and violating the rules of Common Sense, does not relieve us of the obligation of doing our own home work.

If you can’t make the numbers work within your current income, don’t bet on massive increases in the value of your investment to bail you out.

You have a better chance in Vegas than in a financial commodity you do not understand. (And the truth be told, few of us really understand them.)

2. Don’t bet your home on things you don’t need.

Contrary to the Logistician’s mantra, there is nothing wrong with wanting a better, more luxurious life, but not at twenty percent interest. Here there are demons…like bankruptcy…and acid rain falling on your childrens' heads.

Save the money 1st; then buy the Lexus. It’s only Common Sense.

3. Ignore herd instinct.

When everybody agrees on the direction of a market, guess what…?

4. Be careful when building and buying things which are more than you need.

Advertising not withstanding, buying an Escalade won’t make you an NBA star. There is a reason why the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord are the 2 best selling cars in the country.

5. Particularly avoid using credit or going into debt to build or buy things which are more than you need.

We went into debt, both individually and collectively, based on the assumption that the party would never stop.

Pick up any book on history…it always does. And, you don’t want to be the guy playing musical chairs when….

6. Remember that gluttony and greed are 2 of the 7 deadly sins.

Really want to make a 20% return on your income? Pay off your credit cards.

7. Carefully weigh the impact of retirement on an individual and societal level.

The Logistician and I differ on this point. The Logistician feels we got lazy and retired too early. My take is that we took the money and ignored our inherent desire for a more worthwhile job… and after 30 years we couldn’t wait to get out.

With our most experienced workers, although still productive, leaving the workforce early, all of this experience went to waste… and it is experience we can ill afford to waste.

8. Avoid being seduced by the short-term Sirens.

There was a time when we bought things to last. Next time you are in the park, look at the number of people taking pictures with manual focus SLR cameras.

This desire to last drove a subsequent demand for quality… producing a pride of workmanship that represents the essence of “Quality of Life.”

9. Don’t leave the education of your kids to the entertainment industry.

Not wanting to engage them, we abdicated our responsibility to the likes of Nintendo, Disney, and MTV, as long as they didn’t interfere with our pursuit of the “good life.”

If you don’t want children, don’t have them. You can not experience the sense of wonder children project, as they learn about the world via remote control.

You have to be there… and evolution suggests that this is one of the few primal pleasures we have inherited undiminished.

10. Lend a helping hand.

If you know someone in need of a job, through no fault of his own, ask around. Do what you can to help him get re-employed.

Want to raise the “quality of your life,” watch the face of a man or woman you have helped put back to work. Government can’t do that.

You see, we do most of the spending. No income, no spending. No jobs, no income.

Is there anything on this list which defies Common Sense?

After all, we should be smarter than Mr. Twain’s cat.

© 2009, by the Laughingman for the Institute for Applied Common Sense

Post No. 55b: New Age Thinking: Behavioral Economics

There is a new way of looking at the world, attention to which is not being paid by our leaders. The mere fact that they spend so much of their time bickering suggests such. Earlier today on C-Span, Thomas Friedman suggested that the United States is like the space shuttle heading to some undetermined destination. He said that the rocket booster is leaking, and the pilots in the command module are arguing about the flight plan.

Take a look at what some very insightful and visionary people, who publish their thoughts at Edge (http://www.edge.org/), have to say about a new way of looking at the world and our role in it.

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/thaler_sendhil08/thaler_sendhil_index.html