© 2008, The Institute for Applied Common Sense
We have a tendency to read the latest books on the New York Times Best Seller List, or the classics. We sometimes forget about important works from just a few years ago. In 1987, Paul Kennedy published The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (http://books.google.com/books?id=9rpmAAAAMAAJ&q=%22The+Rise+and+Fall+of+Great+Powers%22&dq=%22The+Rise+and+Fall+of+Great+Powers%22&ei=TYawSK6sG4XKzQSxuITxBg&pgis=1). For years, it was mentioned by academicians, leaders of industry, and politicians alike in discussing America’s place in the world, and its prospects. However, it appears that it is not mentioned with much frequency these days. We feel that the message contained therein needs a re-examination. Additionally, a number of you have requested that we reference this work again so that you might acquire it.
The following is taken from an earlier post, No. 9, entitled, "Recognizing the Potential of the Innovative Thought Process (We are a Better Country than We Currently Think of Ourselves)" (http://theviewfromoutsidemytinywindow.blogspot.com/2008_05_01_archive.html).
“In his significant work, The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000… Yale professor Paul Kennedy discusses and analyzes patterns that exist during the ascent to power, and those associated with the power’s subsequent decline. Originally published in 1987, and after receiving rave reviews at the time, I am simply amazed that so little reference is made to it in the current discussion of where we are as a Nation. Anyone examining the book will immediately note that Kennedy did his homework, in that it is replete with economic data, which actually makes it somewhat difficult to digest. Be that as it may, he concludes that there are three main factors that appear to repeatedly contribute to the decline of a world power. Two of them are of relevance to the United States at this point in time.
Kennedy submits that one factor is that the power is overextended militarily throughout the world, which leads to a depletion of its coffers, and a drain on its economy and energy. The second involves technology. As a general proposition, the country which possesses the highest level of technology, which also translates to the most sophisticated and effective weapons, stays in power. It generally has spent a considerable period of time, and a significant component of its resources, on research and development associated with that technology. When such a power exports its technology and that technology is easily and quickly duplicated by others without the attendant investment in its development, other emerging economic powers can then adopt it and overtake the inventing country. Not only is the technology exported in such a transition, but the scientific knowledge base is also adversely affected, along with the technology workforce.”
Here’s hoping that the United States does not have to experience the decline during our lifetimes, or that of our children, or their children, or their….
© 2008, The Institute for Applied Common Sense
Showing posts with label world power. Show all posts
Showing posts with label world power. Show all posts
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Post No. 28: After We Resolve the Oil Issue, Will Water Be the Next Crisis to “Affect” America?
© 2008, The Institute for Applied Common Sense
Remember the year in which you read this article. One of the goals of this blog is to stimulate and provoke thought. However, another goal is to encourage our readers to view issues from different perspectives, particularly perspectives which take in consideration issues larger than our personal and local issues. In other words, we encourage “big picture” and long-term analysis. We believe that it is only through this type of analysis that we will be able to “dig deeper” and determine the underlying reasons for current societal problems, and avoid inefficiently employing our time addressing the superficial symptoms.
In the Monday, July 21, 2008 electronic edition of the New York Times, there appears an article written by Andrew Martin entitled “Mideast Facing Choice between Crops and Water.” (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/21/business/worldbusiness/21arabfood.html?th&emc=th.) The following excerpt is taken from that article:
“CAIRO – Global food shortages have placed the Middle East and North Africa in a quandary, as they are forced to choose between growing more crops to feed an expanding population or preserving their already scant supply of water. For decades nations in this region have drained aquifers, sucked the salt from seawater and diverted the mighty Nile to make deserts bloom. But those projects were so costly and used so much water that it remained far more practical to import food than to produce it. Today, some countries import 90 percent or more of their staples. Now, the worldwide food crisis is making many countries in this politically volatile region rethink that math.”
When one views history from a perspective of thousands of years, one recognizes the importance of agriculture (or food production) on the wealth and expansion of a society. If the efforts of everyone in a society are primarily involved in hunting and gathering for food purposes, the day is consumed with the pursuit of food, and very little else is accomplished. It is only when technological advances permit the generation, by a few, of food, for the many, that those not engaged in agriculture can devote their time and energy in the pursuit of other goals. It is a factor that we have witnessed repeatedly throughout history.
Another major factor is the availability of water, not only for drinking and irrigation purposes, but also for water transport and navigation purposes. One of the things that has plagued the development of Africa throughout history, with a few notable exceptions, has been the scarcity of water and the lack of navigable bodies of water. While most of us here in the United States are concerned about gasoline and heating fuel, we should also stop to consider the drinking and agricultural water problem, since we are now in a global economy.
This writer first became aware of this issue in 2003, when viewing an article in Smithsonian Magazine, which, by the way, is this writer’s favorite magazine “of all time.” (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/.) How many of you were aware of this developing water issue, prior to reading about it here? Is it more significant than the development of nuclear arms or terrorism? Is oil a more significant issue? Have you seen anything in the media in recent years alerting us to this issue? Is there a possibility that the media outlets in the United States have not focused much attention on this issue because of a perception that it is not particularly relevant to U. S. citizens? It is apparently enough of an issue that former U.S.S.R. President Mikhail Gorbachev has been devoting virtually all of his time in recent years to this issue.
Mr. Gorbachev is a member of the Board of Directors of Green Cross International (http://gci.ch/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9&Itemid=9). In 2003, he was the President of the organization. In a March 20, 2003 article in BBC News, (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2867583.stm), author Ben Sutherland wrote, in pertinent part, the following:
“Former USSR president Mikhail Gorbachev has told the Third World Water Forum in Kyoto that a failure to reverse the global water crisis could lead to “real conflicts” in the future. Mr. Gorbachev, who is now president of the International Green Cross, said that there were likely to be severe problems as the demands on water increased together with the planet’s population. It is estimated that by 2025, two thirds of the world’s people will be living in areas of acute water stress. ‘If current trends continue, we could be faced with a very grave situation,’ Mr. Gorbachev warned. It is feared conflicts could arise where rivers and river basins cross state borders. If a country near a river’s source begins using more water, this lowers the amount that reaches countries further downstream. For example, there is currently concern about what effect a proposed scheme in India to divert the Ganges to currently dry areas might have on the water supply downstream in Bangladesh.”
In Henry Hobhouse’s Forces of Change – An Unorthodox View of History (http://books.google.com/books?id=7Bd61vvaI7MC&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22forces+of+change%22&ei=ZZY9SPyPE6SMygTPiLXzAg&sig=CVGKHVm_gASmSdzXCT_N8csMPLE), he submits that modern history has been shaped, not so much by human conduct, but rather natural forces consisting of disease, population growth, and food supply. Hobhouse argues that they form a triangle which balances itself. As one changes or alters the dimension on one side of the triangle, there must be commensurate change in one or both of the other two sides. To address these natural forces also requires a different type of thinking, more collaborative in nature.
Once again, we ask you to remember the year in which you read this article. The food supply issue is big; this water issue is perhaps bigger. Let’s hope that we approach the impending water issue better than the manner in which we have dealt with the oil issue. Remember – we are now part of a global community, whether we consider it to be a good thing or a bad thing. Can you envision a scenario where water is more precious than oil?
By the way, the last time that we checked, those countries with the most cutting edge desalinization technology were in the Middle East.
© 2008, The Institute for Applied Common Sense
Remember the year in which you read this article. One of the goals of this blog is to stimulate and provoke thought. However, another goal is to encourage our readers to view issues from different perspectives, particularly perspectives which take in consideration issues larger than our personal and local issues. In other words, we encourage “big picture” and long-term analysis. We believe that it is only through this type of analysis that we will be able to “dig deeper” and determine the underlying reasons for current societal problems, and avoid inefficiently employing our time addressing the superficial symptoms.
In the Monday, July 21, 2008 electronic edition of the New York Times, there appears an article written by Andrew Martin entitled “Mideast Facing Choice between Crops and Water.” (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/21/business/worldbusiness/21arabfood.html?th&emc=th.) The following excerpt is taken from that article:
“CAIRO – Global food shortages have placed the Middle East and North Africa in a quandary, as they are forced to choose between growing more crops to feed an expanding population or preserving their already scant supply of water. For decades nations in this region have drained aquifers, sucked the salt from seawater and diverted the mighty Nile to make deserts bloom. But those projects were so costly and used so much water that it remained far more practical to import food than to produce it. Today, some countries import 90 percent or more of their staples. Now, the worldwide food crisis is making many countries in this politically volatile region rethink that math.”
When one views history from a perspective of thousands of years, one recognizes the importance of agriculture (or food production) on the wealth and expansion of a society. If the efforts of everyone in a society are primarily involved in hunting and gathering for food purposes, the day is consumed with the pursuit of food, and very little else is accomplished. It is only when technological advances permit the generation, by a few, of food, for the many, that those not engaged in agriculture can devote their time and energy in the pursuit of other goals. It is a factor that we have witnessed repeatedly throughout history.
Another major factor is the availability of water, not only for drinking and irrigation purposes, but also for water transport and navigation purposes. One of the things that has plagued the development of Africa throughout history, with a few notable exceptions, has been the scarcity of water and the lack of navigable bodies of water. While most of us here in the United States are concerned about gasoline and heating fuel, we should also stop to consider the drinking and agricultural water problem, since we are now in a global economy.
This writer first became aware of this issue in 2003, when viewing an article in Smithsonian Magazine, which, by the way, is this writer’s favorite magazine “of all time.” (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/.) How many of you were aware of this developing water issue, prior to reading about it here? Is it more significant than the development of nuclear arms or terrorism? Is oil a more significant issue? Have you seen anything in the media in recent years alerting us to this issue? Is there a possibility that the media outlets in the United States have not focused much attention on this issue because of a perception that it is not particularly relevant to U. S. citizens? It is apparently enough of an issue that former U.S.S.R. President Mikhail Gorbachev has been devoting virtually all of his time in recent years to this issue.
Mr. Gorbachev is a member of the Board of Directors of Green Cross International (http://gci.ch/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9&Itemid=9). In 2003, he was the President of the organization. In a March 20, 2003 article in BBC News, (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2867583.stm), author Ben Sutherland wrote, in pertinent part, the following:
“Former USSR president Mikhail Gorbachev has told the Third World Water Forum in Kyoto that a failure to reverse the global water crisis could lead to “real conflicts” in the future. Mr. Gorbachev, who is now president of the International Green Cross, said that there were likely to be severe problems as the demands on water increased together with the planet’s population. It is estimated that by 2025, two thirds of the world’s people will be living in areas of acute water stress. ‘If current trends continue, we could be faced with a very grave situation,’ Mr. Gorbachev warned. It is feared conflicts could arise where rivers and river basins cross state borders. If a country near a river’s source begins using more water, this lowers the amount that reaches countries further downstream. For example, there is currently concern about what effect a proposed scheme in India to divert the Ganges to currently dry areas might have on the water supply downstream in Bangladesh.”
In Henry Hobhouse’s Forces of Change – An Unorthodox View of History (http://books.google.com/books?id=7Bd61vvaI7MC&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22forces+of+change%22&ei=ZZY9SPyPE6SMygTPiLXzAg&sig=CVGKHVm_gASmSdzXCT_N8csMPLE), he submits that modern history has been shaped, not so much by human conduct, but rather natural forces consisting of disease, population growth, and food supply. Hobhouse argues that they form a triangle which balances itself. As one changes or alters the dimension on one side of the triangle, there must be commensurate change in one or both of the other two sides. To address these natural forces also requires a different type of thinking, more collaborative in nature.
Once again, we ask you to remember the year in which you read this article. The food supply issue is big; this water issue is perhaps bigger. Let’s hope that we approach the impending water issue better than the manner in which we have dealt with the oil issue. Remember – we are now part of a global community, whether we consider it to be a good thing or a bad thing. Can you envision a scenario where water is more precious than oil?
By the way, the last time that we checked, those countries with the most cutting edge desalinization technology were in the Middle East.
© 2008, The Institute for Applied Common Sense
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